Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
