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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an acrimonious face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

National Implications

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House in 2016.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd